Investment update
Weekly insight into the marketplace.
November 25 to 29, 2024
Markets remained in record high territory
The major U.S. stock indexes finished higher on Monday as equity markets continued to rally from the previous Friday’s close. News that U.S. president-elect Donald Trump nominated hedge fund executive Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary helped push the Dow up 1% and to a new closing high. The S&P 500 hit an intraday high but settled slightly lower – though still positive for a sixth-straight day. The tech-heavy Nasdaq finished 0.3% higher, while Canada's TSX declined 0.1%. On Tuesday, the Dow and the S&P 500 rose to record highs, gaining 0.3% and 0.6% respectively, while the Nasdaq added 0.6%. The TSX ended narrowly lower, weighed down by losses in the energy and base metals sectors, as Canadian investors reacted to Trump’s plan to impose 25% tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico over concerns about border security. The TSX bounced back with a record high close on Wednesday, as investors readjusted to Trump’s political tactics. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Dow, however, all ended in negative territory on Wednesday. Positive performance by energy and industrial stocks helped the TSX gain 0.22% on Thursday, with trading at lower volumes than usual with U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. The TSX added 0.4% on Friday and was up 6.2% for the month. In a shortened Black Friday session, the Dow and the S&P 500 gained 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively, for new record highs. The Nasdaq added 0.8%, narrowly missing a new record. November was the best performing month of the year for the Dow and the S&P 500, rising 7.5% and 5.7%, respectively. The Nasdaq had its best performance since May.
Canadian Premiers reacted to Trump’s tariff demands
On Tuesday, the Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level since May 2020 following Donald Trump’s threat to impose 25% tariffs on a broad range of Canadian goods. The loonie dropped to 71.01 cents U.S. after falling below 71 cents earlier in the day. The incoming U.S. president said the tariffs would remain in place until Canada and Mexico do more to stop the illegal flow of people and drugs (fentanyl specifically) into the United States. During his first presidency Trump imposed a 20% tariff on softwood lumber, followed by a 25% tariff on steel and 10% on aluminum. Canada’s Premiers met with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Wednesday to discuss Trump’s plans and how Canada should respond. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said the conversation focused on border security and working together in a united way. “We agreed that illegal drugs, especially opioids, are a scourge for both of our countries and that we need to continue to work hard to ensure our border is safe and secure and to really crack down on illegal drugs," Freeland said.
The Canadian economy increased 0.3% in Q3
Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a slower pace of 0.3% in the third quarter, versus the 0.5% in year’s first two quarters. On a per capita basis, GDP was down 0.4% for the three months ending September 30. The positive contributions to economic growth were led by household spending, which was up 0.9%, led by sales of trucks, vans and sport utility vehicles. Government spending increased 1.1% in Q3 and marked the third-consecutive quarterly increase, with the last decline coming in the fourth quarter of 2023. Statistics Canada’s report highlighted slower non-farm inventory accumulation, lower business capital investment and lower exports, as detractors in Q3.
The stock and bond market*
| Index | Close | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 25,648.00 | 0.80% | 22.38% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 44,910.65 | 1.39% | 19.16% |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,032.38 | 1.06% | 26.47% |
| NASDAQ Composite | 19,218.17 | 1.13% | 28.02% |
| 10-year Canadian Bond Yield | 3.23% | -0.21% | 0.13% |
| 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield | 4.18% | -0.23% | 0.30% |
| WTI Crude Oil (US$/barrel) | $68.00 | -4.55% | -5.09% |
| Canadian Dollar | US$0.7140 | -0.20% | -5.44% |
| Bank of Canada Prime Rate 5.95% | |||
*Weekly performance ending November 29, 2024. Source: Bloomberg.
Canadian and U.S. employment data (December 6): With the final interest-rate decisions of the year coming up, investors and market analysts will be paying close attention to the last few economic reports of 2024. Canadian unemployment was 6.5% in October while U.S. unemployment was 4.1%.
Circle these dates
December 11: Bank of Canada interest-rate announcement
December 17 to 18: U.S. Federal Reserve meetings and statement
The commentary in this report is based on current market conditions and market media sources available to the public and may change without prior warning at any time. The forecasts provided herein are not guarantees of future performance and include risks, uncertainty and assumptions. While Co-operators Life Insurance Company (“Co-operators”) believes these assumptions are reasonable, there is no guarantee they will be confirmed. This report is not a guarantee of future investment performance, nor should undue reliance be placed on this report. This report is provided as a general source of information for a specific point in time and should not be considered solicitation to buy or sell any investment. Nothing contained in this report constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice. The content in this report should not be relied upon in making an investment or other decision, and individuals should obtain relevant and specific professional advice and read the terms and conditions contained in the relevant offering documents carefully before any investment decision is made. Co-operators is not responsible for any loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained in this report. Co-operators makes no representations or warranties as to the information contained herein and does not guarantee its accuracy, timeliness, completeness or usefulness. Co-operators is committed to protecting the privacy, confidentiality, accuracy and security of the personal information it collects, uses, retains and discloses in the course of conducting business. Please visit cooperators.ca/privacy for more information. Co-operators® is a registered trademark of Co-operators Group Limited and is used with permission. Investing in your future. Together.TM is a trademark of Co-operators Group Limited. If you are a client who has received this, and you have questions or want to discuss your investments, please contact your Financial Advisor.
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